Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
